Trade Wars & the Dinner Table: Which Foods Are Most Vulnerable to Import Tariffs?
A new study on behalf of Trace One has identified the potential impact of import tariffs and foreign good shortages on the U.S. food supply.
Donald Trump’s recent plan to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% tariff on goods from China, could have significant consequences for U.S. consumers. Together, these three countries supply nearly half (45%) of all U.S. food and beverage imports, making everyday staples more vulnerable to rising prices.
Currently, the U.S. imports nearly a fifth of its food supply from abroad, and the average American household spends nearly 14% of its annual budget on food and beverages. For many, this is already a burden—28% of U.S. adults report difficulty affording food, and 13.5% of households are classified as food insecure, meaning they lack reliable access to sufficient nutrition.
To better understand the potential impact of import tariffs and foreign good shortages on the U.S. food supply, researchers at Trace One, a company specializing in regulatory compliance for the food and beverage industry, analyzed the most recent data from the USDA, U.S. Census Bureau, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Their focus was on tracking changes in food imports over time, examining food imports as a percentage of total consumption, identifying key trade partners, and highlighting the top imports for each state. For more information on the data sources and methodology, refer to the methodology section.
Imported foods have become an increasingly significant part of the American diet, with the share of imported goods rising across nearly every food category in recent years. Between 2008 and 2022, the percentage of total food and beverages consumed in the U.S. that were imported increased from 12.4% to 17.3%. However, this growing reliance on imported food has been particularly pronounced in certain categories.
Fruits and nuts stand out as one of the most import-dependent categories, with nearly 60% of the fruits and nuts consumed in the U.S. now coming from abroad, up from 35.8% in 2008. Similarly, imports of milled grains and oils have grown sharply, now accounting for 57.4% of consumption, compared to 31.5% in 2008. Other categories like sweeteners and vegetables have also seen notable increases, with imports now constituting 45.0% and 40.4% of consumption, respectively.
In addition to these categories, the U.S. is heavily reliant on imports for seafood, with an estimated 70–85% of seafood consumed domestically coming from international sources. As tariffs and trade policies potentially shift, these high levels of dependency on imported goods could have a direct impact on food prices at the consumer level.
Top Trade Partners & Imports
Food & beverage imports from Mexico & Canada account for 42% of the U.S. total
At the country level, Mexico and Canada account for 42% of total U.S. food and beverage imports. Mexico exported over $44 billion in food products to the U.S. in 2023, primarily beer, while Canada exported $38 billion, with bread and pastries as its leading category. Italy and France are among the top European exporters, with wine as their primary export to the U.S. Other significant trade partners include Chile, which supplies salmon, and Brazil, a major source of coffee.
China, India, and Indonesia are key contributors from Asia, exporting a variety of products such as oils and shrimp. Australia and New Zealand are important suppliers of beef, while countries like Peru and Vietnam export grapes and cashews, respectively.
Among specific food categories, bread and pastries are the largest import, valued at nearly $6.9 billion. Prepared foods, coffee, and frozen shrimp also rank high in value, while beer leads among beverages, followed by liqueurs, cordials, and wine.
